COVID-19, A DEAD SENTENCE?

COVID-19,  A DEAD SENTENCE?

I would not want to border you on the long lecture about the above Virus. I just want us to rob minds, put our understanding together for a better coordinated war against the evil virus threatening  the whole world. 

It is a deadly virus. It is transmitted from man to man. It finds its way into the body through the Nose, eyes and mouth via droplets. Droplets from Cough, sneeze and sometimes from talking (Speaking). Droplets transmitted through the air over a short distance of 0 to 3 meter. It can also be through our hands after touching the surface with infected droplets and then touching our nose, eyes or mouth with the same hand without washing it for 20seconds with soap and running water.  Hence the idea of washing of hands, sanitizing of hands, no hand shake, Social distance and face mask.

The transmission starts from the throat into the lungs. Its incubation period is between 2 to 14 days. After which people begin to show signs and symptoms. Infected people are capable of infecting others during this incubation time with or without symptoms. As at the time of writing this article, there is no vaccine or therapy for Covid-19. In most cases, the patients are advised to isolate themselves to avoid infecting other people around them (Quarantine). Patients are advised to rest as the individual immune system is expected to fight back and restore a sound health to the body. In some cases, this does not work out. The patient's health deteriorates and the lung is infected, so the patient will have severe difficulty in breathing. At this stage the patient will come into the ICU and will need a respiratory machine (medical ventilator).

My understanding is, this lockdown is not really to curb death (of course later on it will be to reduce the number of deaths). Right now the aim of the lock down is to slow down the pace, the speed at which the virus will spread. Even with lock down it is still going to spread, but spread at a slow pace. This will help us to buy time to prepare. Be able to give proper medical attention to those infected. We can only do this if large numbers are not infected at the same time/period, therefore keeping the pressure on our health system under control. A situation where many people get infected at a time will create collapse in the health system as seen in Spain, Italy and the USA. Medical personnel working under immense pressure, confusion may set in and it can be a catastrophe.

As the pace is going, our health personnel are doing well. No pressure, not out of control, no confusion etc. 

On the lock down policy of nigeria. I personally think the fact that everyone is locking down does not mean will should lock down. Considering our society, the level of poverty, level of education, the preparedness of the people and our religion fanaticism we may not be able to lock down appropriately. We lock down to save lives while the economy suffers. If we do not lock down appropriately, we will lose lives and lose the economy. It is better not to lock down all than to lock down ineffectively. 

We could start with partial lock down since some theories are in our favour. Theories such as the theory that says since the virus has some symptoms similar to malaria, places where malaria is part of their life may not experience many deaths. And another theory says since the virus is not warm weather friendly, it may not be able to live long and spread as supposed. These are unproofed theories which could be put to test in the first phase of the lock down.

What I expect Nigerian government to do are.

1. Get well informed about the Virus. A good knowledge about the virus itself will put our crisis managers in a better position. We can not afford guess work.

2. Government to set up a network of researchers, scientists and virologists.. Corporate and individual to work on the Virus while a central body co-ordinate the research activities. Will serve as a source of information for the policy makers rather than waiting for information from abroad.

3. Our traditional medicines should be given trials. We can not afford to wait for the death to come. We must put up a fight. Let it be said of us that we tried. People infected should be informed about the trials and they could volunteer to take part. It is a path to get solutions.

4. The people need enough information about the virus and government plans etc. It will help the people to understand and play along with less force.

5. Government should map out a workable strategy to alleviate the effect of the lockdown on the people.

6. A clever strategy on the lock down itself. We can start with partial lock down and watch as Virus spreads. We can always review and modify our strategy. With partial lock down, the economy will be running partially. There are some jobs or works that can still go on and will not aid the spread of the Virus. 

7. Data collection, keeping and management. How many people are likely to be infected in Nigeria? How long will it take the virus to spread to that population or number of people? How many of the infected are likely to need a medical ventilator? How many ICU ward/beds do we have? How many ICU ward/beds do we need? How are the beds or the machines allocated or spread in the country? What is the capacity of our health system? etc. all these will help in decision making.

8. Government should start looking at the possible increase in criminality in our society and find a way of monitoring and suppressing it. 

9. Government should start strategizing on how to move the economy after the Civid-19. Post Covid-19 economy building strategy. 

10. Government should know that community transmission is on the increase now, so there is an urgent need for aggressive tests. Expand our testing capacity. The first leg of the win race against this Virus lies in the test capacity. 

Country	Population	Test Conducted	Percentage
Ghana	31,000,000.00	37,000.00	0.12
South Africa	59,000,000.00	80,000.00	0.1
Tunisia	12,000,000.00	11,000.00	0.092
Egypt	102,000,000.00	25,000	0.025
Morocco	37,000,000.00	9,000.00	0.024
Nigeria	205,000,000.00	5,000.00	0.0024

From the above table, we see that our testing capacity is very poor. The delay in testing is very dangerous. 

We should all play our parts in this fight. 

1. Stay at home if you have nothing so important doig outside. This way you save your life and save other people's lives. You are helping in reducing the spread and God will bless you for doing that.
2. 2. If you must go out, use a face mask. This way you help in limiting the rate and speed at which the Virus will spread.
3. Wash your hand regularly and use your hand sanitizer.
4. Avoid where many people are gathering. Practise social distance. Maintain 2 to 3 meter distance. You can never tell who is infected. Save your life. 
5. If you must cough or sneeze please do that into your inner elbow.